This paper explores the limitations of current elicitation approaches to collect and use subjective probabilities and impact ranges to assess uncertainty and risks. It provides several examples of different calibration assessment results and their adequate use to improve the strength of risk input data. It also presents a case for risk analysts to use sound scientific rigor in respect to inputs when performing qualitative risk assessments and quantitative risk analyses in support of decision-making. The author suggests the use of calibration assessment in any modeling approaches using subjective inputs whether they be decision trees, parametric models, Monte Carlo simulation, reference class forecasting, or system dynamics. 

By: Francisco Cruz Moreno, PE

2022 AACE® INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL PAPER 

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The post Calibration Assessments: Validation of Subjective Probabilities and Impact Ranges in Risk Analysis appeared first on PMA Consultants.

It comes as no surprise that the majority of projects fail their estimates to complete as most projects do not execute risk assessments early and often. While other issues may impact a project and lead to failure in addition to omitting proper risk assessments, the inability to manage risk through constant risk assessments is a pivotal reason for failure. 

This paper will focus on a process that assists the project team in avoiding the continuous failure of completing a project on time, on budget, and within scope because of a lack of proper risk management. If will also provide suggestions to help avoid risk pitfalls by executing risk assessments in a continuous and consistent pace, not only when the risk arises, but from the beginning of the project through closeout. 

The objective of this paper is to encourage project teams to take the appropriate time and effort to assess project risks with the goal of providing an organized and practical approach to project risks and opportunities. 

By: Francisco Cruz Moreno, PE and Gino Napuri, EVP

2022 AACE® INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL PAPER 

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The post The Importance of Doing a Risk Assessment in Every Project, Early and Often appeared first on PMA Consultants.

By: John C. Philbrick, PE CCP and Francisco Cruz Moreno, PE

2017 AACE® INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL PAPER 

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The post Portfolio Scheduling – How to Achieve Success and What Does Success Look Like? appeared first on PMA Consultants.

This paper describes practical techniques to plan and schedule new construction and renovations of existing buildings; typical sequences and durations used for commissioning, qualification, and validation activities; timing for engagement with different stakeholders; common pharmaceutical terminology employed during all phases of a project; and recommended approaches to leverage previously performed work to potentially gain time in the project schedule. Novice and seasoned practitioners alike will benefit from following these procedures. The author has successfully used these practices in manufacturing facilities for oral, parenteral, and topical administration products located in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. 

By: Francisco Cruz Moreno, PE

2021 AACE® INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL PAPER 

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The post Practical Planning and Scheduling for Capital Project Delivery in the Pharmaceutical Industry appeared first on PMA Consultants.

PMA has long been invested in the crucial mission of our public and private schools. Today we are faced with new challenges that require an entirely new and emergent model for school environments. In this innovative publication, Dr. Gui Ponce de Leon lays out the framework for this new model that will ensure safe environments for students, teachers, parents, and staff.

While Dr. Gui acknowledges that schools must embrace online learning as a portion of the educational experience, in-person instruction will also be required. To ensure stakeholder buy-in, every participant in this process is considered, and communication tools in the form of model questionnaires to parents and teachers are provided.

As Dr. Gui notes, masks and social distancing are necessary but not sufficient to create COVID-resistant schools. The mitigation of the risk exposure to the COVID-19 virus through screening, social distancing, PPE wear, and hygiene measures when at school and the environmental transformations that must occur is explored in-depth in this work.

Informed by decades of K-12 school project experience, PMA delineates the requirements to modify building operating systems to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19 and future pandemic situations. With recommendations on HVAC and plumbing systems, as well as extensive notes on facility configuration plus links to important resources on building operations and maintenance, this publication anticipates all major contingencies.

With a portfolio of 96+ K-12 projects and programs managed for school clients in the prior 10 years, PMA is passionately, as well as professionally, invested in the future of K-12 education. This publication is recommended for school boards, departmental administrators, teachers, parents, and students, as well as construction professionals and the public at large.

Author: Gui Ponce de Leon, PhD, PE, PMP, LEED AP

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The post Emergent K-12 School Models in the Age of Pandemics appeared first on PMA Consultants.

Forensic scheduling was acknowledged as a technical field distinct from project planning and scheduling in 2007 when AACE International issued Recommended Practice No. 29 Forensic Schedule Analysis (RP 29). RP 29 signaled the arrival of forensic scheduling as the knowledge successor to the prior art of delay analysis.

Leading the Way

In 2010, CEO Dr. Gui Ponce de Leon, in collaboration with other senior PMA leaders, published the Guide to the Forensic Scheduling Body of Knowledge—Part 1, which extends RP 29 and other standards. With over 20 years of experience collaborating on project work and forensic scheduling, the authors were uniquely positioned to compile existing and emerging principles and methods into this authoritative guide.

Forensic Float

Once actual dates are introduced into a CPM schedule, the CPM scheduling algorithm ceases to function left of the data date. Total floats cannot be calculated with the CPM equation of late finish date (or actual finish) minus early finish date (or actual finish). With CPM unable to calculate total floats in the past, the critical path cannot be mathematically generated for the progressed portion of the schedule (left of the data date), or for the as-built schedule, without using work-around methods and potentially impairing accuracy of the analysis.

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FSBOK Example Pages

The Graphical Path Method (GPM), pioneered and developed by Dr. Ponce de Leon, retains float left of the data date and is inherent to the GPM algorithm.

For more in-depth coverage of GPM, including the calculation of total floats and the location of the critical path left of the data date, browse the resources below, see the GPM tab, or visit PMA Technologies.

The post Guide to the Forensic Scheduling Body of Knowledge appeared first on PMA Consultants.

After a comprehensive look at CMAR’s performance record and a frank exposition of common pitfalls, the authors introduce the concept of progressive CMAR delivery, an approach defined by a relationship of trust and confidence between the construction manager and the owner. Progressive CMAR delivery continues the PMA tradition of emphasis on reliable schedules, project controls, and risk mitigation, and lays out a specific seven-step strategy toward CMAR success. Using the progressive CMAR model, project owners are able to re-prioritize cost, achieve rigorous value optimization, and counter inherently higher cost tendencies with a shorter schedule, faster delivery, higher facility quality, and a minimal incidence of claims.

This incisive work is a must-read for project owners, project management professionals, and construction attorneys.

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The post Construction Manager At-Risk Delivery Strategies appeared first on PMA Consultants.

Through a lengthy, collective effort, the Authors of Core Traits of a Reliable Schedule have endeavored to codify the essential elements of a reliable schedule into a comprehensive protocol. Core Traits of a Reliable Schedule contemplates CPM and GPM schedules and further highlights that a comprehensive, credible, well-constructed, and controlled (seen as the four corners of a reliable schedule) schedule captures the notion of a great schedule. This work is a must-read, must-have for any professional aspiring to great schedules.

Core Traits of a Reliable Schedule is aimed at codifying schedule submittal established and emerging best practices for the benefit of scheduling practitioners who are engaged with…

• owners;
• owner’s project manager organizations;
• consultants reviewing schedules for the owner; and
• contractors/construction managers submitting schedules for owner review

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Get a sample of the core traits

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