This keynote will: 1) reveal how the GPM probabilistic scheduling algorithm, by allowing activities to float in every iteration, develops both the statistical early and late schedules, unveiling early/late bounding completion distribution envelopes from which practitioners can infer more realistic 80% confidence level completion aka P80 dates; and 2) question continued reliance on CPM risk assessment tools that promote optimistic P80 dates. The hoped-for outcome is a path toward more realistic schedule risk analysis results.

The post WATCH: Schedule Risk Assessment Early and Late “P80” Dates appeared first on PMA Consultants.

BIM is an integrated project controls tool that helps the CM, Owner, and other key stakeholders understand scheduling, cost, and risk components by visually representing how projects get built and are going to look throughout each phase of their lifecycle. Mega construction projects have complex, multi-page schedules, including Gantt chart graphics, which are difficult for anyone to follow using 2-D schedules. BIM lets you visualize the sequencing and conflicts, reducing errors and delays. BIM models can include site plans on schematic versions, laydown areas, excavation areas, tower cranes, crawler cranes, the movement of materials and equipment from location to location, and sharing the timing of equipment installations so owners know when areas are going to be accessible. Combining project controls elements with an understanding of constructability analysis is the extra layer of knowledge and experience added by this process.

BIM is a valuable long-term investment

Facility management is the ultimate end goal of combining software and an as-built model that becomes the model of record for the project. Entering the BIM process from early design limits risk and errors, engages the team from the beginning, minimizes re-work, and maximizes efficiency to deliver the project. The best practice for implementing BIM long-term is as follows: First, enter into the construction phase with the 60-90-100 design model and delegate contractors with the responsibility to update the model throughout the construction process lifecycle, including uploading and delivering work in place and as-built model drawings at the end of the project for facility management. Then, in an ideal world, this step leads to the 5D and 6D stages. The 5D stage is the cost-loaded aspect of the BIM model and, in the 6D stage, the BIM model is transitioned into an as-built, completed model for facility management. All systems and schematics requiring maintenance are recorded into software, such as Maximo, where the BIM model can be drilled down into the electrical systems, installed equipment, service life, etc. Ultimately, the BIM model will then provide a printout used to manage the building using this model or be displayed on an iPad to previsualize the schematics behind the wall.

BIM is cost effective

Implementing BIM on a megaproject is not as expensive as it is often perceived to be. The total cost is offset by potential savings derived from investing early in the assignment, avoiding rework, delays, and claims, and scaling it based on which point in the project it is brought in. BIM is typically not a huge overhead cost for an assignment and usually consists of approximately a few thousand dollars a year in software costs, personnel costs, and two or three work stations. A full BIM team could be set up for a total of about $50,000-$60,000, which is not a major footprint on a megaproject or a program of work.

PMA Consultants is a leader in using BIM for the construction of megaprojects. Since 2005, when we first implemented a value planning exercise with the Lower Manhattan Construction Command Center Project, we have provided BIM services on projects for the Port Authority PATH station rehab model, the Bayonne Bridge Navigational Clearance Project, and the Newark Airport Terminal Redevelopment project.

The post Why Megaprojects Need BIM appeared first on PMA Consultants.

Third Annual PMCOS College of Fellows Meeting

January 10-12, 2019
The Breakers, Palm Beach, Florida

Panel: Improving on the Predictive Accuracy of P80 Dates

Panelists: Gui Ponce de Leon, PE, PMP; Bruce Stephan, PE, PMP; Tarek Bahgat, PMP

The CPM algorithm’s ability to develop bounding early/late dates using activity durations and logic was a new scheduling paradigm that has sustained CPM as the scheduling method of choice since 1957. Regrettably, when used in Monte Carlo probabilistic scheduling, CPM develops only x,000 instances of the early schedule, and therefore only the early completion distribution curve.

This Panel has two objectives. First, to reveal how the GPM probabilistic scheduling algorithm, by allowing activities to float in every iteration, develops x,000 instances of both the statistical early and late schedules, unveiling early/late bounding completion distribution envelopes from which practitioners can infer more realistic 80% confidence level completion aka P80 dates.

Second, with this compelling finding, to ask fellow practitioners (who are keenly aware of the vagaries of risk schedule analysis) whether we should reconsider relying on CPM risk assessment tools that tend to promote optimistic P80 dates based only on the early completion distribution. The hoped-for outcome is a path forward toward more realistic schedule risk analysis results.

Gui Ponce de Leon, PhD, PE, PMP

Dr. Gui Ponce de Leon is one of our nation’s foremost planning and scheduling experts. His professional experience includes roles as investor’s developer, construction manager, program manager, and EPC contractor planner/scheduler. Dr. Gui has continually pioneered innovations in project management throughout his 45-year career. With GPM, he is on a quest to transform scheduling from a “black box” task performed by specialists to stakeholder-centric processes that promote collaboration, enhance stakeholder interaction, and inherently result in reliable schedules.

Bruce Stephan, PE, PMP

Bruce Stephan is a nationally recognized licensed civil engineer with more than 30 years of experience on complex medium, large, and mega engineering/construction projects. Mr. Stephan has held progressively responsible positions in the construction of water, transportation, and power infrastructure industries ever since. His distinguished career includes public service, general contracting, and consulting nationally and internationally. His award-winning experience includes design-build, integrated project, CM-GC, and CM at-risk delivery methods on public capital improvement programs.

Tarek Bahgat, PMP

Tarek Bahgat, a Project Controls Manager at APTIM, has extensive experience in construction management, project management and controls, risk management, value engineering, and cost estimating and controls. He has provided relevant services on transit, infrastructure, power plants, water/wastewater facilities, and large hotel construction programs.

The post Improving on the Predictive Accuracy of P80 Dates appeared first on PMA Consultants.

PMA Technologies introduces NetPoint version 5.2, a single tool for planning, scheduling, and analyzing the risk and reliability of project schedules. New functionality in version 5.2 allows project planners and schedulers to develop and analyze schedules for a more reliable result. Version 5.2 includes a new module called Schedule IQ that scores the reliability of your schedule based on compliance with PMA’s 20 Core Traits of a Reliable Schedule protocol and provides other metrics according to the DCMA 14-Point Assessment. The Schedule IQ Score helps project planners identify and repair the weakest parts of their schedules, resulting in more reliable overall scores.

Schedule IQ determines, for every weather profile, workday losses by month by accessing NOAA and randomly generates weather day calendars. It relies on powerful, nuanced weather algorithms to make it feasible for schedules to be credible predictors of progress and completion. As these processes are mastered, further innovation in weather management will fundamentally alter scheduling practice.
Dr. Gui Ponce de Leon, Founder and CEO of PMA, creator of the Graphical Path Method

In addition to Schedule IQ, version 5.2 includes other exciting new features. WBS customization allows you to organize activities into an easy-to-use hierarchy for summarizing data, laying out your schedule, and exporting to P6. Contract dates provides a new way to log changes to contract dates over time and see when a breach has occurred in the network. Resource importing saves time and effort when entering resources. You can use any Excel file to copy, paste, and enter resource names, categories, cost, colors, intensity, and patterns, and import them into your schedule. Fiscal Year Display adjusts the display of years and quarters to align with your organization’s calendar. Version 5.2 also includes keyboard shortcuts to change tools quickly and effortlessly using your keyboard, allowing you to keep your mouse on the canvas.

Since its commercial release in 2008, NetPoint has proven an invaluable tool to a variety of leaders in the project controls and construction industries. PMA Technologies continues to develop innovative ideas into practical solutions to inspire transparent, effective, and collaborative planning and scheduling.

The post NetPoint Adds Schedule Reliability Functionality appeared first on PMA Consultants.

The post Obsoleting 60 Years of Scheduling Calculus, Introducing the Graphical Path Method (GPM) appeared first on PMA Consultants.

The post GPM® and Forensic Total Float appeared first on PMA Consultants.